Doi southeast Climate Science Center Science and Operational Plan – draft




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НазваниеDoi southeast Climate Science Center Science and Operational Plan – draft
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DOI Southeast Climate Science Center Science and Operational Plan – DRAFT


Compiled by Sonya A. Jones and Melinda Dalton


Science Planning Team Members include:


Levi Brekke, US Bureau of Reclamation; Virginia Burkett, US Geological Survey; Catherine Burns, The Nature Conservancy; Bob Ford, US Fish and Wildlife Service; Margo Schwadron, National Park Service; and Jim Vose, US Forest Service.


Special thanks to Joe DeVivo, National Park Service, John Jones, US Geological Survey, Alexa McKerrow, US Geological Survey, and Jennifer Costanza, North Carolina State University


US Department of the Interior

US Geological Survey

National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

Southeast Climate Science Center


Contents


Contents 4

Executive Summary 5

Introduction 7

CSC, LCC, and Partner Coordination 8

1.Map showing boundaries of CSCs and LCCs. 9

Southeast Regional Assessment Project 9

2.Study area for Southeast Regional Assessment Project. 11

3.SERAP data flow diagram. 13

Southeast CSC Science Planning 13

Regional Context 15

4.Physiographic divisions within the boundary of the Southeast CSC 15

Observed Climate Change 17

5.Trends in average temperature and precipitation for the Southeast (Source: National Climate Data Center, NOAA, 2009; table from US Global Change Research Program, 2009). 17

6.Observed changes in precipitation in the Southeast between 1901 and 2008 (from US Global Change Research Program, 2009). 18

Projected Climate Change 18

7.Projected change in North American precipitation by 2080-2099 as simulated by an ensemble of 15 climate models under the IPCC A2 emission scenario (from US Global Change Research Program, 2009). 19

8.Projected land areas in the southeastern US that would be affected by a sea-level rise of 3 and 9 feet [Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS), 2011]. 21

Land Use and Land Cover Change 22

9.Summary of trends in US land cover change, 1973-2000 (Source, USGS Earth Resources and Observations Science Center, 2011).
23

23

Science Themes 24

Science Theme 1: Develop Climate Projections and Determine Appropriate Projections to Use for Resource Management 27

Task 1: Evaluate Needed Climate Information within the frame of Southeast CSC focus resources and study questions 27

Science Theme 2: Land Use and Land Cover Change Projections 36

Task 1: Regionally focused research on land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences 37

Task 2: Droughts, floods, and water availability under changing land use and climate 38

Task 3: Biological responses to changing land use and climate 38

Task 4: Develop land cover and habitat projections for the southeastern US 39

Science Theme 3: Impacts of Climate Change and Human Demands on Water Resources 41

Science Theme 4: Ecological Research of Coupled Human and Natural Systems 45

Task 2: Test whether the predicted responses of species to climate change and land use change match observed changes. 47

Science Theme 5: Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal and Nearshore Marine Environments 50

Science Theme 6: Impact of Climate Change on Cultural Heritage Resources 56

Monitoring Priorities 60

60

Information Management and Data Sharing 62

Complementary Endeavors and Tools for Southeast CSC 63

Cooperative Research and Decision Support 63

Education and Training 64

Outreach and Community Involvement 64

Southeast CSC Science Expertise and Skills 65

Literature Cited 67

Appendix A. Bibliography 79

81

Published Material 82

Other Material and Compilations: 86

Relevant Websites: 86



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