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NV20:2020 seeks to position Nigeria as one of the top 20 economies in the world by the year 2020. In economic terms, this translates to having a Gross Domestic Product of at least US $900 billion by that date, compared to about US $212.1billion as at 20087 . The macro-economic framework, which consists of consistent policy guidelines and projections, provides the necessary foundation for the programmes and policies of NV20:2020. The outcomes of the macro-economic framework are, however, likely to be highly vulnerable to disturbances in the domestic and global environment. For most of the present decade, the country experienced an oil boom during which some notable gains, including a large measure of macro-economic stability, were achieved. However, the negative shock occasioned by the current global economic crisis has tended to reverse many of the gains, just as the earlier shock did in the early 1980s, when the Fourth National Development Plan ran into funding challenges because of the glut in the international crude oil market. In planning ahead for NV20:2020, the country recognises the implications of the global economic environment on the Nigerian economy, and factors in the potential growth rate of other economies on the one hand, and possible distortions in commodity prices, on the other.
Growth Projections in Relation to the last Five Economies in the Group of Top 20
Nigeria’s macroeconomic targets for 2020 are based on a dynamic comparative analysis of the country’s potential growth rate vis-à-vis growth rates of other Top 40 economies in the world. The growth requirement, in terms of GDP, was determined through a process of ascertaining the current GDPs of the bottom five members of the current top 20 economies and using their average growth rates to project what their GDPs would be in 2020. The estimates show that by 2020, Poland and Indonesia will have sizes of GDP that are near Nigeria’s aspiration of at least $900bn. For Nigeria to achieve the economic size of Poland (GDP size of US$ 963 billion), it will have to grow at an annual average rate of 13.4%. To achieve the GDP value of Indonesia of $1,000.5 billion, the Nigerian economy must grow at an average of 13.8% during the time horizon to 2020. Given the past similarities of the Nigerian and Indonesian economies, Indonesia’s projected economic size was used as a benchmark, in which case, the average annual growth rate to target would be 13.8%. Realising this quantum leap in Nigeria’s economic growth would require a fundamental change in the structure of the economy from primary production (agriculture and crude oil production) to industrial manufacturing and services.
Table 1-1 shows the structure of production and other economic characteristics of the bottom top 20 economies in relation to Nigeria’s structure. Unsurprisingly, Nigeria exhibits the features of an underdeveloped country, while the Top 16 -20 countries, by GDP, exhibit the features of developing or advanced economies. In three of the countries, agriculture contributes between 3 and 5% of GDP, compared to Nigeria’s 42%. Worse still, Nigeria’s agricultural sector has a much lower productivity.
Table 1-1: Economic Characteristics of Nigeria and the Bottom Five of the Top 20 Economies (2007-2008)
Source: World Bank - World Development Indicators, 2007 and 2008
Table 1-2: Optimal Structure of National Output by 2020 versus Existing Structure
Based on the features and development trajectories of the top 20 economies, Nigeria has to aspire to have an economic structure which is depicted in Table 1-2. This desired structure of the economy should see the relative contribution of agriculture decline to perhaps 15% over the long term, while the sector continues to grow on the basis of high productivity. Simultaneously, the industrial sector would be propelled to drive the economy over the medium term up till 2015 while a transition to a service-based economy is envisaged from 2018-2020. For the required structural transformation to occur, however, the binding constraints on the agricultural and industrial sectors must be addressed, in particular, the infrastructure bottleneck.
Факультет государственного управления, Ломоносовский пр-т, д. 27, корп. 4, Москва, Россия